Here’s a set of indicators to look at some of the key Banking and Macro-economic indicators in India
Fortnightly Loan Book Growth for Banks (%YoY)
Loan book growth has picked up but is still way off the highs of the pre-demonetization era which is worrisome
Fortnightly Deposit Growth for Banks (%YoY)
The deposit inflow however continued to remain largely robust throughout the pandemic leading to massive excess liquidity with the Banks
Household Debt
Household debt has continued to inch up post-demonetization indicating an undertone of stress in the economy
Residential Property Price Index
The property prices have remained under control despite a significant period of loose monetary policy indicating space for further dovishness
CPI Food Inflation
Food prices have been subduing due to the higher base of prices last year led by fuel-price rise and global led price rise
CPI Inflation
Inflation has also been subduing now over the high base of last year even as it stayed above RBI’s comfort level last year
Household Inflation Expectations (1 Year Forward)
Inflation expectations have been inching higher as a result of the sustained CPI inflation above 6% for most of the pandemic period
Policy Rate
The accommodative monetary policy initiated through the pandemic has some more time to go before the RBI might think about policy rate hikes
Capacity Utilisation (%)
Capacity utilization continues to remain below par and the private capital expenditure cycle looks to be still some time away given uncertainties around COVID
Business Expectations Index
Business expectations, however, have gone up on the back of end of nationwide lockdowns and should ramp up utilization in the days to come
Government Debt to GDP
The fiscal situation has been in a structural deterioration even before the pandemic began and continues to be challenging with low growth
Government Expenditure to GDP
Economic activity so far has been driven by never-seen-before fiscal pump-priming and near-term scope remains subdued for growth