Here’s a set of indicators to look at some of the key Banking and Macro-economic indicators in India

Fortnightly Loan Book Growth for Banks (%YoY)

Loan book growth has picked up post pandemic and is inching towards the highs of the pre-demonetization era which is encouraging

Fortnightly Deposit Growth for Banks (%YoY)

The deposit inflow is tapering at the margin after remaining very robust throughout the pandemic indicating more expensive money in the days to come

Household Debt to GDP

Household debt has continued to inch up post-demonetization and further so post-pandemic indicating an undertone of stress in the economy which will impact any runaway recovery

Residential Property Price Index

The property prices have remained under control despite a significant period of loose monetary policy indicating lack of “animal spirits” and a more gradual pace of recovery ahead

CPI Food Inflation

Food prices in India have contained well relatively vs global prices which have seen a significant rise thanks to policy actions on limiting exports

CPI Inflation

Inflation has also been high but contained as compared to the global benchmarks even as it stayed above RBI’s comfort level for over 2 quarters now

Household Inflation Expectations (1 Year Forward)

Inflation expectations have been inching higher as a result of the sustained CPI inflation above 6% for most of the pandemic period

Policy Rate

The accommodative monetary policy initiated through the pandemic has seen reversal in-line with the actions of the global central banks and will remain hawkish in the near future

Capacity Utilisation (%)

Capacity utilization continues to remain below par and the private capital expenditure cycle looks to be still some time away given uncertainties around monetary policy

Business Expectations Index

Business confidence has been falling after a strong post-pandemic recovery on account of higher inflation, below-potential demand, hawkish monetary policy and global geo-political uncertainties

Government Debt to GDP

The fiscal situation has not deteriorated much below pandemic levels thanks to a strong tax mop-up led by higher inflation, increasing compliance and rejigging of GST tax brackets

Government Expenditure to GDP

Strong tax mop-up and need for stimulating demand has resulted in a never-seen-before fiscal pump-priming; this will continue to support growth in near-term